Jeb & Mitt

The Republican Party has taken a turn to the right. Many moderate Republicans have had to turn to the right to survive politically. Those whom refused have been vanquished by ultra-conservative forces. Two men, whom may very well run for President of the United States, embody the moderate Republican agenda. These men are Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney. While Romney swung to the right during the 2012 Presidential campaign and primaries while he was Governor of Massachusetts he was a moderate common sense Republican. Quite a rarity these days.

If the Republican Party attempts to run an ultra-conservative candidate (such as a tea party backed candidate), they will certainly lose the general election against the Democratic nominee. Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney are the best chance the Republican Party has of recapturing the White House in 2016.

Governor Bush and Governor Romney have served in the highest echelons of business and have held one of the highest political offices in the United States that of Governor.

However only one can run for either to be successful. Both of them appeal to big business, posses similar philosophies, and can draw in voters whom are tired of Tea Party obstructionists and anti-modern views on social issues. Both are simply logical moderates with years of executive and business experience.

I believe Governor Bush is the best chance for Republicans to pull in swing/moderate voters and defeat the presumed Democratic nominee Hilary Clinton. Governor Bush has proclaimed, bravely (at least politically) his view on controversial issues such as immigration and gay marriage While Governor Bush didn’t come out firmly in support of gay marriage he did say that same sex couples along with rule of law must be respected. On immigration, well, Governor Bush is married to a Hispanic women born in Mexico and has strongly supported immigration reform. I say that gives him the advantage over any Republican when it comes to garnering the Hispanic-American vote. Unlike Governor Romney who said in the nineties he is to the left of Senator Ted Kennedy on abortion, Bush has proclaimed his views just a few months before potential nominees will announce their candidacies and cannot as easily cop out of them by saying his views have changed. Governor Romney was attacked constantly for ( in the 2012 Presidential Election) changing his values and views on issues he supported as Massachusetts Governor and Senatorial Candidate. Voters like firm leaders whom profess their views clearly and do not hide from them.

Jeb Bush has the powerful Bush name behind him. Much like the Clinton name the name Bush can be helpful as well as a hindrance. It can invoke emotions ranging from awe to disgust. A famous name associated with two US Presidents and a governor polarizes and garners instant support. The name Romney is simply not as powerful nor as polarizing.

Finally Jeb Bush is associated with political success. While his father, President George H.W. Bush did lose his reelection campaign to Bill Clinton, his brother, President George W. Bush served two terms as President and he himself served two terms as Governor. On the other hand Governor Romney lost his parties nomination in 2008 and lost the 2012 Presidential election to President Barack Obama. Voters can at times forgive but party leadership will rarely forget about a candidate whom has lost a Presidential election, and so the Romney name carries with it a mark of defeat. Something Jeb Bush certainly does not.

I do believe Jeb Bush will run for President. If so he can capture swing voters, appeal to the Republican base (once ultra-conservative candidates our knocked out of the race), and out fund most competitors. Other competitors such as Chris Christie are just to polarizing or like Rand Paul too conservative to win in the general election. Romney is just a non-starter, he and Bush occupy the same sphere and the weight of Bush is just to great. I do believe Jeb Bush will seek the Republicans nomination for President of the United States and if so has the greatest chance of delivering the White House to the Republican Party. Nominating Governor Romney again will be a great mistake and a waste of a campaign.

 

A promise of change, A potential for progress

November 4th is no more, with November 5th comes promise not of progress but of change. The Republicans easily keep control of the United States House of Representatives and took control of the United States Senate. Regardless of what Democratic leaders said publicly we all expected it; from the historical lack of seats for a Presidents party six years into his term to Obama’s particular problems regarding executive leadership, the Democrats were due for a loss.

The count for the next Congress is this: Republican will have at least 246 house seats, and 52 seats in the Senate( Two races are undeclared in Louisiana and Alaska but easily lean Republican.)

I do not see the next year being productive for Washington with a Democrat executive and republican congress its quite unlikely to pass legislation

But Hope does remain.

If Obama embraces a centrist philosophy, such as Bill Clinton did throughout his presidency (but particularly in 1998), and Republicans attempt to compromise, our national leaders have a chance to rebuild America from Washington. With that said egos and political difficulties on both sides will make such a scenario improbable.

My fellow Americans do not fret about the integrity of our newly elected officials, after all we get the government we vote (of don’t vote for).

The Midterms Are Here

Get out and vote!!! Through the ballot we are in control of our nation’s future.

The Midterms: A Test for America

“They be a corrupt one and the hour be late,” kinda said author of Herman Melville. In two days time the fate of which political party controls our two chambers will be decided, though in reality the fate of both the House of Representatives and the United States Senate was decided along ago.

Basically pundits, citizens, and anyone with halve a brain believes that the Republican Party will undoubtedly capture control of the United States.

The nation can look forward to a Congress controlled by one party and Executive Branch controlled by another. I cannot say with certainty what will happen but only look at the state of the government during the last two years of George W. Bush’s Administration. During this time the Republicans may have controlled the Executive Branch but Democrats had captured control of the House of Representatives and the United States Senate due to President’s Bush unpopularity. This period of divided government lead to political grandstanding and gridlock.

I fear with Republican control of congress complete and Democrat’s controlling the Executive Branch for at least two more years this government will maintain its current lack of productivity.

There are several reasons why Democrats will lose control of the senate and undoubtedly lose a few more House of Representative seats. One there is a historical trend in the US where the party in power, after an incumbent presidents reelection, loses Congressional seats. Two President Obama is very unpopular in the minds of most Americans, they will not reward Obama’s party with Congressional Representatives in light of his perceived failures.

Third, people whom would vote Democrat such as the young, poor, and ethic minorities rarely turnout in large number for midterm elections. Instead you are simply left with a subset of the population, the Republican subset, whom include the white, the old and the rich.

With the above factors in mind, Democrats, undoubtedly will lose control of the Senate. Obama has failed in the mind of the public, his party will be hurt because of such perceptions. I hope the new Congress will be able to work with the President, I believe though that we are going to see continual legislation coming from Congress and President Obama continually vetoing such legislation.

In the end few members of this new congress will standout and few notable pieces legislation will be passed. Simply put the current political system is broken, these midterm elections will do little to change that.

Compromise: A Necessary Good

The Founding Fathers were forced to compromise some of their deeply cherished beliefs to find the United States of America. From slavery, check and balances, even the location of the capital itself America was formed upon the ability to put the needs of the nation ahead of the needs of one selves. The Founding Fathers understood what politicians today don’t or can’t; that compromising ones ideals for a better future does not mean you must compromise yourself.

Today such traits are not welcomed in our national leader, instead such traits are vilified. Instead of compromise one is accused of compromising integrity or the trust of ones constituents. It is a shame what our nation’s political process has come to, battle lines are drawn and a politician must not cross them.

For example a popular social issue in the United States, is Marriage equality for same-sex couples. The Democrats are pro-marriage equality, the Republicans are anti-marriage equality. So Democrats take up one side and Republicans take up the other, no one is left to fill the void.

Instead of our national representatives creating meaningful federal legislation states are left to sort out the fate of same-sex couples. This is not an issue of states rights but simply of the ability of citizens to engage in “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of happiness”.

Of course some progress could be made on the marriage equality front with the creation of meaningful compromises such as preserving traditional marriage for religious/spiritual reason but giving civil unions the same legal rights as marriage. Of course any politician whom attempted such a compromise would be called names such as a “flip-flopper” or even worse a politician.

(Disclaimer: I fully support marriage equality)

The example above is only one example of how political compromises can truly put this nation back on the path of greatness. Compromise is not a weakness in politics (generally) but a strength. The media, gerrymandering, and most prominently the American public contribute to this toxic anti-compromising political culture. Only through politically literate citizens will compromise be seen as a means of putting the nation forward.

O Gerry, Stop Splitting Districts

America is becoming more and more politically partisan both the American People and our supposed representatives in Congress have become more and more determined to seek hard life left wing or right wing policies while rejecting all forms of legitimate compromise. While there are more than a few reasons that hyper partisanship has become the norm, I believe the root of the problems lies with the political technique known as gerrymandering. Gerrymandering is the redrawing of congressional districts to gain a political advantage in elections.

Gerrymandering was invented by Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry, in 1810 he redistricted Massachusetts to account for populations changes. While the original intent behind gerrymandering is muddled one thing is certain: gerrymandering today is simply legal corruption used to reap massive political advantage.

I don’t believe many citizens of this nation are of aware of how gerrymandering works and how it effects them. Under the current political order every ten years, the time when population census take place state legislatures are allowed to redraw congressional districts due to changes in “ population” (at least in theory). In practice gerrymandering is used to create districts that keep the political party doing the redistricting in Congress. Far more than many Americans realize state legislatures are extremely important (or at least important once every ten years), if a political party controls the state legislature that party effectively controls whom in that state is elected to Congress.

For example lets say your the Republican Party of Arizona, you have noticed in the past few decades that Arizona’s population has become more and more Hispanic as immigrants migrate from Latin America to the United States. Before you know it your traditional white Republican voters become the minority in some congressional districts putting Republican Congress seats at jeopardy. In this instance the state legislature, Republican controlled, redraws the district cutting out Hispanic voters (whom currently votes Democrat) and packing in as much white Republican voters as possible. In this scenario the Republican in Arizona are able to hold on to their congressional seats thus benefiting the national party. ( Disclaimer I simply chose the republican party in this example Democrats do the exact same thing.

The process explained above is why congressional districts look like this

What is one to do to combat gerrymandering and the larger threat of partisanship? For one a non-partisan commission, perhaps crafted from a private organization, could be set up to divide congressional districts. However the problem is that non-partisan commissions quickly become very partisan, such is the political America realities. A second more viable solution is this: have state constitution amended to state that congressional districts must be divided mathematically. With todays technology it should be easy to create an algorithm that maps out a state and then divides said state into congressional districts into impartial bits.

Such is the woes of American political realities. Hyperpartisan gerrymandered districts leads to the election of hyperpartisan congressmen and congresswoman whom must pander to their partisan voters lest they be voted out of office.

Gerrymandering is simply one problem that must be fixed in order to return our nation to greatness and reinvigorate its political process.

Immigration, Obama, and the Children

President Obama must confront an immigration crisis, one that touches the very fabric of America’s national character. Children from Latin American countries, countries often with high rates of crime and poverty, are encouraged by their parents to make a dangerous hundred miles long journey to the United States. These parents do care and love their children, they believe that the only way for their children to live a life free from poverty and crime is through immigration to the US, whether that be legal or otherwise.

President Obama along with Congress must respond to the children coming over our borders and into the Unites States. President Obama is being criticized by Republicans for not going to the border and confronting the issue personally. While I do believe President Obama should go down to the border to show that he is taking an active interest in the well being of these children I also believe that such a gesture would be largely symbolic.

President Obama is on the right path (or should I say the left path, pun intended) asking Congress to appropriate him $3.7 billion to deal with the influx of youth immigrants from Latin America. Yet Republicans seem to be addressing political brinksmanship then attempting to solve the problem of the illegal minor immigrants. Instead they blame Obama for the current problem for not providing the US-Mexico border with enough security throughout his tenure as President of the United States.
I do not agree with the GOP on this issue. There is more border security personnel patrolling the border under President Obama then under President Bush yet Republicans still blame President Obama for the current immigration crisis.

If the Republican Caucus of Congress wishes to solve this crisis, instead of shifting blame upon President Obama, they should agree to his $3.7 billion appropriation measure.

The New McCarthyisim

 

The rise of McCarthy has come to pass, and no not the commie in your bed witch hunting McCarthy; I mean Kevin McCarthy a congressman from Bakersfield, California whom represents the 23^rd congressional district. A member of the Republican Party McCarthy served as House Majority Whip, his mandate simple pass legislation by getting opposing members of the House to work together. A few days ago McCarthy was elected as House Majority Leader the 2nd highest leadership position in the US House of Representatives. Now everyone is talking about McCarthy, he appears to be a raising star in the Republican Party.

Eric Cantor, the former House Majority Leader from Virginia, lost his reelection campaign to Tea Party backed candidate David Brat. This shocked the US political world and sent the Republican Party into a tail spin as no one expected that the little known David Brat could defeat one of the most powerful men in American politics.

Such happenings have been analyzed and catalogued, I asked myself two questions; what does Cantor’s loss and McCarthy’s rise mean for the Republican Party and for Congress as a whole?

McCarthy as House Majority Leader is on the whole good for the Republican Party (Yes I acknowledge that Cantor’s loss is a shake up for Republican leadership). Unlike Cantor, the former House Majority Leader, McCarthy is considered by his colleagues to be a intelligent thoughtful colleague whom attempts (and often succeeds) to bring the House’s different factions together to pass legislation.

I believe that McCarthy’s election to House Majority Leader and Cantor’s electoral loss to a candidate backed by the Tea Party will lead to two developments. For one Tea Party candidates and Tea Party backed congressmen will be more respected and feared, as a consequence the more the backbone of the Republican Party will have no choice but to integrate the Tea Party into the Republican mainstream. The second change is a consequence of the first. Due to Cantor’s unexpected loss and the subsequent Republican leadership shuffle the Republican Party may become more unified in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Politicians and pundits alike have both said that the Tea Party’s power and influence is waning. Yet perhaps recent developments would should that is a false notion. All politics are local and unfortunately for the Republican establishment